ReferenceVaethra reference
Glossary
Every term Vaethra uses in a specific sense, defined once. Where a word here means something narrower than it does in ordinary use, the definition says so.
A–ZDefinitions
A
- AtroposSystem 02
- The cascade simulator. Names a subject, applies a severity, and follows recorded dependencies outward to report what is exposed. Named for the Fate who cuts the thread.See also: cascade, hop, channel.
B
- Backtest
- A replay of history that asks whether signals actually preceded confirmed events. Reconstructs what was visible on each past date using only what was known then, and scores the result against independent ground truth.See also: null baseline, point-in-time, ground truth.
- Baseline
- A series' own recent normal, against which a current reading is judged. Every route and price carries its own; there is no global threshold.
- Below normal
- A port or strait moving less traffic than its own recent baseline. Frequently the earliest visible sign of a closure, because vessels divert before anyone announces anything.
C
- Cascade
- The set of consequences traced outward from a shock. Presented as an ordered list of exposures with the path that reached each one.See also: Atropos, hop.
- Channel
- The kind of relationship a shock travels along: supply, demand or security. Kept separate because they move at different speeds and carry different weight.
- Chokepoint
- A strait, canal or passage through which a disproportionate share of global trade must pass. Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, Malacca and others.
- Corroboration
- Independent sources reporting the same event. Raises confidence without creating a second record — duplicates are collapsed and retained as corroboration.See also: deduplication.
D
- Demand channel
- A shock transmitted by losing a buyer rather than losing a supplier. A revenue problem playing out over quarters, weighted well below a supply shock.
- Dependency
- A recorded relationship in which one entity relies on another. Every dependency carries the evidence tier that established it.See also: evidence tier, graph.
- Domain
- One of the eight subject areas: conflict, maritime, energy, hazards, food, health, infrastructure, cyber.
E
- Entity
- Anything the system can track and connect: a country, port, strait, company, commodity, facility or index.
- EschatonSystem 04
- In early development. A study of how religious traditions read the present moment — which prophetic claims circulate, where, and against which events. It adjudicates nothing.
- Evidence tier
- How a record or link was established, from direct measurement down to a single machine-coded press report. Visible on everything and filterable everywhere.See also: measured, statistical, structural, signal.
F
- First seen
- When Vaethra first received a record — kept separate from when the source published it, because several providers publish long after the fact.
G
- Graph
- The recorded web of dependencies between entities. Roughly 77,600 links, of which about 13,300 are measured.
- Ground truth
- Independently sourced confirmation that an event occurred, used to score signals. Held in a separate ledger from the signals themselves.
H
- Hop
- One step in a cascade. Each states the channel it used, the share of dependence it carried, and the evidence tier behind it.
L
- Lag
- The delay a dependency imposes, accumulated along a path. Used to bound how far a shock can reach inside a stated horizon.
M
- MeasuredEvidence tier
- The strongest tier. Established from published trade, traffic or input–output figures, carrying the year they were measured.
N
- Null baseline
- A deliberately naive model a result must beat to mean anything. Two are published: a random ordering, and a 'big things move most' model.
O
- OracleSystem 03
- In development. The prediction layer, which will turn signals into forecasts carrying a published accuracy record from day one.
P
- Point-in-time
- Reconstructing what was knowable on a past date, using only data available then. Prevents a backtest from quietly using the future.
- Pressure
- The 0–100 index of how loud the world is today, weighted by evidence and responsive to breadth of stress across domains rather than raw volume.See also: methodology.
S
- Severity
- How badly a record or a simulated shock affects its subject, from informational up to critical or total loss.
- SignalEvidence tier
- A statistical anomaly — a series diverging from its own baseline. The weakest tier of evidence, and kept separate from confirmed events throughout.
- StatisticalEvidence tier
- A link inferred from two series reliably moving together over time. Never presented as a flow of anything: a correlation is not a pipe.
- StructuralEvidence tier
- A link from physical or institutional fact — this facility sits in this country, this strait serves these routes.
- Superseded
- A weaker link kept but marked, after a stronger tier established the same relationship. Nothing is deleted, so the disagreement stays visible.
- Supply channel
- A shock transmitted by an interrupted input. The fastest and heaviest of the three channels.
T
- TerminalSystem 01
- The observation layer, and the live product. Every located disruption on one screen with its provenance attached.
W
- Watchboard
- The panel tracking ports and chokepoints against their own baselines.